Which US States Are Most Likely to Legalize Marijuana in 2025

As we step into 2025, the legalization of marijuana remains a hot-button issue across the United States. With shifting political landscapes, increasing public support, and evolving regulatory frameworks, several states are poised to take significant steps toward the legalization of medical or recreational cannabis. While some states are building upon prior legalization efforts, others are preparing to break new ground.

This article takes a detailed look at the states most likely to legalize marijuana in 2025, along with insights into the driving forces and forecasts under new state and federal administrations.

1. Kentucky

Current Status: Medical cannabis program launches in 2025.
Forecast: Gradual expansion into recreational use by 2026 or beyond.

Kentucky has long been a conservative state regarding marijuana reform, but the passage of Senate Bill 47 in 2023marked a turning point. This legislation establishes a tightly regulated medical cannabis program, set to launch on January 1, 2025. Patients with qualifying conditions such as chronic pain, epilepsy, or PTSD will be eligible for a 30-day supply, though smoking cannabis remains prohibited.

Looking ahead, some analysts believe that the successful rollout of the medical program could pave the way for recreational legalization, particularly as economic pressures and public demand grow. Governor Andy Beshear’s administration has expressed cautious optimism about the state’s ability to adapt to broader legalization in the future.

2. Florida

Current Status: Medical cannabis legal; recreational legalization stalled.
Forecast: Potential ballot initiative in 2026; recreational use unlikely in 2025.

Despite being one of the largest medical marijuana markets in the country, Florida failed to pass a recreational cannabis ballot initiative in November 2024, falling short of the 60% supermajority required for constitutional amendments. However, public support for legalization remains high, with a University of North Florida poll indicating 70% of Floridians support adult-use marijuana.

A significant endorsement from former President Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 vote suggests that political attitudes in the state may be shifting. Still, experts predict that another push for recreational marijuana legalization will likely occur in 2026, as advocates regroup and refine their strategies.

3. South Dakota

Current Status: Medical cannabis legal; recreational use facing ballot hurdles.
Forecast: Strong potential for recreational legalization by mid-2025.

South Dakota’s journey toward marijuana legalization has been marked by controversy and persistence. After voters approved recreational marijuana in 2020, legal challenges from Governor Kristi Noem’s administration overturned the decision. Advocates, undeterred, have launched new initiatives, and a 2024 ballot measure is expected to address recreational legalization once again.

The state’s growing medical marijuana program, coupled with increasing public support for adult-use cannabis, suggests that South Dakota could finally legalize recreational marijuana in 2025, should the latest initiative succeed.

4. North Dakota

Current Status: Medical cannabis legal; recreational use under consideration.
Forecast: High likelihood of a ballot measure passing in 2025.

North Dakota has quietly been laying the groundwork for broader marijuana reform. In 2024, the Secretary of State approved a recreational cannabis ballot initiative for signature collection. If enough signatures are gathered, the measure could appear on the ballot in 2025.

Experts believe that public sentiment is gradually shifting, as neighboring states like Minnesota have embraced full legalization. The economic benefits of cannabis tax revenue may also drive bipartisan support for legalization in this traditionally conservative state.

5. Nebraska

Current Status: Strict cannabis laws; medical marijuana legalized in 2024.
Forecast: Recreational legalization unlikely before 2026.

Nebraska has historically been one of the most restrictive states regarding marijuana use. However, voters approved two medical cannabis initiatives in November 2024, signaling a dramatic shift in public opinion. While the state is unlikely to move directly to recreational legalization in 2025, the establishment of a medical program could build momentum for broader reforms in the coming years.

6. Ohio

Current Status: Recreational cannabis legalized in November 2023.
Forecast: Full market implementation expected by late 2025.

Ohio is set to become one of the largest marijuana markets in the Midwest, thanks to the passage of the Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol initiative in 2023. Adults aged 21 and older can now possess and cultivate cannabis for personal use. The next challenge lies in rolling out a comprehensive commercial framework.

Experts predict that Ohio’s cannabis market could generate over $1.5 billion annually by 2027, with full implementation expected by the end of 2025. This makes Ohio a key state to watch as the industry continues to mature.

7. Virginia

Current Status: Legal possession; sales framework still pending.
Forecast: Regulated sales likely to begin in 2025.

Virginia made history in 2021 by becoming the first Southern state to legalize marijuana possession. However, the lack of a regulated sales framework has created significant challenges. Senate Bill 448, introduced in 2023, aims to address this gap by establishing a commercial cannabis market.

The bill has faced delays but is expected to advance in 2025 under growing pressure from constituents and neighboring states with active marijuana markets.

8. South Carolina

Current Status: Considering medical cannabis legalization.
Forecast: Medical marijuana could become law by the end of 2025.

South Carolina is one of the few states without any form of legal marijuana. However, the reintroduction of the South Carolina Compassionate Care Act in 2024 marks a significant step toward medical legalization. If passed, the state would join others in the Southeast, such as Georgia and Florida, in offering medical cannabis to patients.

Federal Implications and New Administration Forecasts

The Biden administration’s recent decision to reschedule marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act has created ripples across the industry. This move reduces federal restrictions on cannabis research and taxation, potentially accelerating state-level legalization efforts.

Furthermore, several 2024 presidential candidates have voiced support for federal marijuana reform, including bipartisan measures to address banking restrictions and interstate commerce. Analysts predict that a federal legalization bill could be introduced by 2026, providing a unified framework for state-level markets.

Conclusion

As we enter 2025, the cannabis landscape in the United States is on the brink of significant transformation. With new laws, ballot measures, and evolving public attitudes, states like Kentucky, Florida, and South Dakota are at the forefront of this movement. Meanwhile, federal actions under the new administration could further shape the future of marijuana legalization nationwide.

For advocates and stakeholders, 2025 represents both a challenge and an opportunity to advance the cause of cannabis reform in America.